2026 is expected to see a record-high planting and production scale of raspberries in China, with growing bases spread across the country. The most notable shift in the industry is the increasingly frequent price fluctuations of raw materials: whereas price cycles used to occur every 3 to 5 years, they now take place almost annually, with prices swinging like a roller coaster. This is a shared challenge faced by all players in the raspberry industry.
Raspberries are a high-value small berry category globally. Fresh berries, IQF frozen berries, fruit puree and anthocyanin extracts serve a wide range of sectors including supermarket retail, bakery, tea and beverages, and health supplements. Over the past five years, global raspberry planting has continued to expand. However, output trends vary significantly across countries, the competitive landscape of producing regions is constantly reshaping, and supply volatility for frozen processing raw materials has intensified.
1. Global Raspberry Production Overview
According to industry statistics from FAO and Fructidor:
• Total global raspberry production reached 810,000 tonnes in 2022
• It rose to 852,000 tonnes in 2023, up 5.19% year-on-year, marking the largest annual increase in the past decade
• Production edged down slightly to 837,000 tonnes in 2024
• Estimated production for 2025 is 875,000 tonnes, with the industry maintaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2%–3%
It is often claimed that global raspberry production declined in 2025, but in fact total global output still saw slight growth. The difference lies in the surging demand for freeze-dried products, which has further driven up consumption of frozen raspberry raw materials worldwide.
Annual global exports of frozen raspberries exceed 480,000 tonnes. Europe is the largest market for processing and consumption, followed by North America. The Asia-Pacific region accounts for the smallest volume but has recorded the fastest demand growth over the past two years.
The rise of healthy eating trends, clean-label baking and plant-based beverages continues to drive growing demand for frozen raspberry raw materials. At the same time, however, the growing side is subject to multiple factors including extreme weather, labor costs, blind expansion of planting, market speculation, and information asymmetry between suppliers and buyers, all of which ultimately lead to wide price swings.
2. Current Development of Core Global Producing Regions
- Mexico – Leading Fresh Berry Producer in the Northern Hemisphere with Sustained Large-Scale Output Growth
Its output hit 184,000 tonnes in 2022 and surged to 279,000 tonnes in 2023, representing an enormous single-year growth of 51.87%. Production remained stable at 280,000–300,000 tonnes across 2024 and 2025, securing its position as the world’s top raspberry producer, accounting for over 32% of global total output.
The country has continuously promoted high-trellis greenhouse cultivation, adding more than 1,000 hectares of planting area annually to enable year-round non-stop harvesting.
Benefiting from the unique temperature differential on the plateaus of Michoacán and Jalisco, Mexico can produce raspberries all year round, efficiently filling the gap in North America’s fresh berry market during winter. Its industry focuses primarily on fresh fruit trade, with around 80% of fresh berries supplied directly to supermarkets across the United States.
- Russia – Domestic Demand-Oriented Production Zone with Steady Output Growth and Restricted Exports
Output climbed from 182,000 tonnes in 2020 to an estimated 215,000 tonnes in 2025, delivering modest and consistent growth. The increased production comes jointly from small household plots and large-scale commercial farms. Around 95% of its raspberry yield is consumed domestically, with only a small volume of frozen berries exported to Central Asia.
The cool climate creates ideal growing conditions for raspberries, accompanied by low pest and disease risks, which lowers the threshold for organic cultivation. Strong local demand sustains the domestic market for jams, fruit wines and frozen berries, supported by a complete frozen processing industrial chain. In addition, abundant land resources offer notable cost advantages for planting expansion.
The main barrier to export expansion is the country’s widespread outdated raspberry varieties bearing small berries, which fail to meet international grading standards for frozen berries and result in limited overseas order volumes.
- Serbia – Core European Supplier of Frozen Raw Raspberries with Severe Output Volatility
Serbia is a key producing region for frozen raspberries, and it suffers the most drastic swings in both yield and pricing, with its annual output normally ranging from 65,000 to 100,000 tonnes.
Natural disasters caused a 20%–30% production cut due to frosts in 2024. In 2025, spring frosts combined with summer heatwaves sent total output plummeting to just 30,000 tonnes, nearly halving production. This single event drove raw material prices of frozen raspberries across Europe up by 51%. Weather conditions remain unfavorable for the 2026 harvest season, so overall production will stay under heavy pressure.
The region’s cultivation is dominated by smallholder growers with inadequate standardized management, leading to inconsistent fruit quality across batches. Mirroring the industry situation in China, blind expansion of raspberry planting is prevalent. Farmers suffer heavy losses from slumping purchase prices during bumper harvests, while many abandon their raspberry fields repeatedly in low-yield years.
- Poland – Dual Core for Fresh Consumption & Processing in Europe with Cyclical Output Fluctuations
Its annual output ranges from 76,000 to 124,000 tonnes with prominent cyclical swings. It hit a bumper yield of 110,000 tonnes in 2023, before a late spring frost cut production to 96,000 tonnes in 2024, followed by a mild recovery in 2025. The national planting area holds steady at 22,000 hectares, with the Lublin region accounting for 71% of total output.
Poland’s key cultivation advantage lies in its full coverage of dual-season varieties ripening in summer and autumn. 46% of its yield goes to IQF freezing processing and 28% to concentrated juice production. Diversified sales channels strengthen its ability to withstand market risks.
Its primary risks stem from an unstable temperate climate; frosts during the flowering period each year represent the biggest threat of production losses. In addition, rising manual picking costs year after year keep squeezing growers’ profit margins.
- China – Asia’s Largest Frozen Processing Raw Material Base, Set for Massive Output Growth in 2026
China’s raspberry output rose from 120,000 tonnes in 2020 to an estimated 180,000 tonnes in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 9% – the highest across the globe.
Core growing regions are concentrated in Shangzhi (Heilongjiang), Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong and Yunnan. Northeast China contributes 55% of the country’s total production capacity. 70% of the harvest is processed into IQF frozen berries for export to Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia and the EU, while the remaining 30% supplies domestic bakery and beverage manufacturers in China.
China’s raspberry planting area will hit an all-time high in 2026. Thanks to multi-regional layout development, the harvesting window has expanded from the previous 2–3 months to 8–10 months. Based on current development trends, staggered year-round harvesting will be achievable across multiple regions of China by 2027.
China’s raspberry cultivation boasts competitive edges including lower land and labor costs compared with European and American nations, a dense network of quick-freezing production lines, and world-leading processing capacity. Strong returns over the past two years have continuously boosted planting enthusiasm among growers.
Existing drawbacks include inconsistent planting standards across regions, leading to wide disparities in fruit quality. Small-scale processing factories operate in primitive conditions with low finished product yields and severe raw material waste.
- Chile – Off-Season Producing Region in the Southern Hemisphere with Years of Industrial Contraction
Chile’s raspberry output peaked at 32,000 tonnes in 2018 before falling to 16,000 tonnes in 2023, cutting production nearly in half over six years. Numerous farmers have switched to growing cherries and blueberries, resulting in a steady shrinkage of raspberry planting areas.
Chile’s frozen raspberries mainly supply the European and American off-season market from December to March of the following year. The local soil features high organic matter content, and the country has a well-established organic fruit certification system. However, the industry faces severe labor shortages that have doubled harvesting costs. Its yield stands at only 4.04 tonnes per hectare, the lowest among all major global producers, leading to low planting returns. In addition, long-distance ocean freight drives up cold chain expenses, making its products less price-competitive than those from Mexico and Morocco.
- Morocco – Emerging Export Production Region in North Africa Achieving Steady Output Growth Through Technology
The planting area remains stable at 4,600–4,800 hectares. During the 2024/25 season, yield rose by 14% thanks to variety improvement and integrated water and fertilizer technology, bringing total output to 64,000–68,000 tonnes. It supplies fresh berries to Europe in winter to fill seasonal supply gaps.
It benefits from low labor costs, off-season supply and proximity to the EU. Local growers adopt greenhouse cultivation to avoid frost hazards and further reduce export transport losses.
3. Global Demand Structure and Key Sourcing Considerations
Demand shows clear divergence. Demand for low-end jams and fruit juices remains stable, while requirements for raspberry quality keep rising among high-end bakery applications, yogurt bases, NFC juices and anthocyanin extracts. Buyers prioritize raw materials originating from standardized bases in Serbia, Poland and Northeast China.
Frost and drought occur frequently in open-field producing regions across Europe and Asia. Serbia and Poland suffered production declines in two consecutive harvest seasons, 2025 and 2026. During supply shortages, FOB prices of IQF frozen berries can surge by 40%–60%. Concentrated supply during bumper seasons, by contrast, triggers sharp falls in raw material purchase prices. Processors build inventory, resulting in significant market price volatility.
Import markets including the EU, Japan and South Korea enforce strict controls on low pesticide residue limits. Last year, multiple shipments were rejected container-wide due to pesticide residue issues stemming from a lack of standardized management among smallholder growers. This serves as a reminder for processors and enterprises: buyers planning high-end export orders should prioritize securing supplies from well-managed standardized bases to avoid substantial losses.
At times, the market also faces an overhang of low-grade raw material inventories, with pesticide residue levels being one of the contributing factors. Besides, pest pressure is severe in certain growing regions due to climatic conditions.
Even amid market shortages, raw materials contaminated with pests remain hard to place. The continuous growth of China’s bakery and new-style tea beverage sectors fuels domestic consumption of frozen raspberries. Imports into Southeast Asia and the Middle East rise by 12% annually, forming a new outlet for absorbing global excess capacity. Nevertheless, these emerging markets are highly price-sensitive and will only moderately relax quality and pricing standards when supplies tighten.
4. Industry Outlook: Risks from Concentrated Release of Global Production Capacity in 2027–2028
Growers in Mexico, China, North Africa and Eastern Europe keep building new greenhouses and expanding open-field planting areas. The industry generally anticipates a concentrated rollout of new global raspberry production capacity during 2027–2028, bringing a cluster of industry risks:
- Oversupply and Cutthroat Competition in Raw Material Pricing
Global annual capacity gains amount to 30,000–50,000 tonnes, while consumption growth for fresh and frozen berries stands at merely 2%–3%, threatening to disrupt the supply-demand balance. Historical market trends in Poland and Serbia show purchase prices for processing berries can plunge by over 50% in bumper seasons. Widespread abandonment of raspberry fields by smallholders and unsold seedlings have occurred repeatedly. Current prices for conventional red raspberry seedlings have fallen by 62% from peak levels, and low-grade fruit may face a situation where no buyers emerge despite listed asking prices in the future. Even amid overall industry oversupply, standardized berries, high-sugar-acid varieties dedicated to deep processing and certified organic fruit can still command price premiums. In contrast, ordinary fresh berries and damaged cull fruit from smallholders will struggle to attract purchases from processors.
- Polarized Supply and Greater Volatility in Raw Material Costs
Frequent extreme weather further widens output gaps between producing regions, amplifying fluctuations in processors’ raw material procurement costs.
- Supply-Demand Mismatch of Seedling Varieties
Nurseries are blindly propagating conventional red raspberry varieties with high yields yet mediocre quality. Seedlings of premium yellow raspberries, blackberries and double-cropping cultivars suitable for high-end processing and fresh consumption account for less than 15% of total supply. Many newly established bases adopt outdated varieties yielding soft berries with unsatisfactory sugar-acid profiles. These cannot qualify for high-end frozen processing orders and can only be sold to low-end jam manufacturers at depressed prices, leaving slim profit margins. In addition, virus-infected seedlings are widespread. Production volumes decline rapidly three years after bases go into operation, extending the payback period.
- Sustained Rise in Production Costs
Year-on-year increases in labor, land and agricultural input costs continuously cap profit potential for growers.
- Intensifying Competition in Global Markets
Low-cost raw materials from South America and North Africa keep capturing export markets for frozen raspberries. Mounting tariff barriers add further competitive pressure.
5. Recommendations for Future Development
For operators planning to enter the raspberry sector or deepen their existing cultivation business, avoid blind large-scale expansion without comprehensive long-term operational plans. Those with formal planting plans should shift toward standardized and intensive production aligned with market trends. Only by delivering high-quality berries with consistent characteristics and compliant pesticide residue levels can growers secure steady profits amid cyclical market fluctuations.
6. Conclusion
In the long run, the growth logic of raspberry industry demand remains intact, and the frozen processing segment still offers growth opportunities. Nevertheless, the next three years will mark a critical window coinciding with the oversupply cycle.
Major global producing regions each have their own strengths and weaknesses, and volatility in raw material supply will become the norm. Extensive development models that rely merely on expanding planting areas and competing over output will eventually be phased out by the market.
Only growers who implement standardized production, build varietal differentiation and establish tight links between production and distribution channels, as well as processors adopting multi-region layout and tiered operation strategies, can weather price cycles and achieve stable, sustainable profitability.